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FC Cincinnati vs Toronto FC Picks and Predictions: Running it Back

Major League Soccer odds, picks and predictions for FC Cincinnati vs Toronto FC for May 4. Free MLS betting picks for team, total and more.

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No, don’t adjust your monitor. Your glasses or contacts did not suddenly change prescriptions. If you feel like you just watched this game…well, you did. On Saturday, FC Cincinnati traveled to Toronto and won all three points on the road, despite missing eight players and four straight games without a win.

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Now both teams head to Cincinnati for the reverse game, with Toronto FC hoping to find a solution to their putrid defense and the home side seeking just their third win at TQL Stadium. Here are our picks for FC Cincinnati vs. Toronto FC for Wednesday, May 4.

FC Cincinnati vs Toronto FC match odds

Odds via the hedges line, an average made up of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

FC Cincinnati vs Toronto FC Predictions

  • Prediction: FC Cincinnati 1H ML (+165)
  • Prediction: FC Cincinnati 1H Over 0.5 (-130)
  • Best bet: SGP – Both teams to score/Over 2.5 (-130)

Predictions made on 05/03/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.

Match info FC Cincinnati vs Toronto FC

Location: TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
Date: Wednesday, May 4, 2022
Weather: 7:30 p.m. ET

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FC Cincinnati vs Toronto FC betting preview


Wednesday evening conditions will be cloudy, but they will also be dry. Temperatures will be in the low 60s at kickoff, with little to no wind expected.


FC Cincinnati: Tyler Blackett CB (Questionable), Allan Cruz CM (Questionable), Alec Kann GK (Questionable), Yuya Kubo FW (Questionable), Ray Gaddis RB (Questionable), Ronald Matarrita LB (Out).
Toronto FC: Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty RB (Out), Ralph Priso CM (Questionable), Noble Okello CM (Questionable), Jacob Shaffelburg LM (Questionable), Deandre Kerr RW (Out).

FC Cincinnati vs Toronto FC Predictions

Our side and total predictions are based on our analysis of the line and total in this match. Our best bet is our preferred choice in all markets.

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Lateral analysis

There don’t seem to be any answers in sight for Bob Bradley’s side right now as Toronto was a mess in the first half of a 2-1 loss. Starting in a 3-4-2-1 formation, Bradley’s men were unable to generate any sort of meaningful possession, before an injury just under half an hour forced TFC to convert to a four-man back line. Even then, they were very conservative in the opening stanza, to no avail. Their defense was inconsistent, the midfielder made far too many sloppy passes and any attempt to play the ball down the pitch came to nothing. That shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone, though, given they’re completing less than a third of their long runs this season, the second-worst in MLS.

Toronto FC’s shyness and inability to put any pressure on the visitors allowed Cincinnati to gain confidence over time, and it showed in a goal late in the first half, when a corner routine saw Nick Hagglund direct the cross towards Ian. Murphy, who was unmarked from the penalty spot and didn’t waste his chance as he easily finished to put the visitors ahead before half-time.

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Seven minutes after the break, playmaker Luciano Acosta benefited from poor defending as a long throw-in into the box landed at his feet, and he was able to turn and finish past the keeper.

Toronto finally started throwing numbers, besieging the Cincinnati area. With reinforcements for the visitors waiting to come in, Toronto finally got on the board with Jesus Jimenez scoring a side volley off a header cross, giving the striker his league-leading seventh goal of the campaign . Bradley threw in all the forwards he could, including the return of Ayo Akinola after being out for nine months with a knee injury, but it wasn’t enough as Cincinnati was able to waste time and defend his life until at the final whistle.

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Toronto is devoid of any leadership on the field and its defense repeatedly allowed Cincinnati to get behind it in the first half. Despite all that, he could have easily escaped with a draw on Saturday as Cincinnati’s finishing woes continued to emerge. In fact, he had a two-goal break in second-half stoppage time and still couldn’t put the game away. If Toronto had opened the game playing like they did in the last 30 minutes, you could say they would have taken all three points.

Personally, I will refrain from betting on the outcome of this game, as Toronto’s second-half urgency showed it can put serious pressure on the Cincinnati defense. I just don’t trust Cincinnati to win at home, which they’ve only done twice in 21 league games at TQL Stadium. While I believe FC Cincinnati will overcome their past and hang on to secure the win, if I were to play anything result-related, I’d bet Cincinnati once again scores first and leads in the interval.

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Prediction: FC Cincinnati moneyline in the first half (+165 at DraftKings)

Over/under analysis

Toronto have conceded a goal in the first half of each of their last four games and in three of their four road games so far in 2022. The New York Red Bulls beat them four times before the break earlier this season and Real Salt Lake entered the scoresheet twice in the top 45 of their game as well.

As for Cincinnati, they have now scored first in their last two games and have recorded first-half counts in five of their last seven games. He has also scored a total of five first-half goals in his last three matches at TQL Stadium. I see no reason why either trend won’t continue against the league’s worst defense.

Prediction: FC Cincinnati in first half Over 0.5 goals (-130 to DraftKings)

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Best bet

As the saying goes, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” My best bet in Saturday’s preview game was for both teams to score and at least three goals to be scored, and if you played it you won with 25 minutes to spare. In a game that saw Cincinnati miss multiple chances and saw Toronto lay siege to their opponents’ penalty area for much of the game’s later stages, the only surprise was that more than three went unmarked.

Toronto is in a tough spot here. If he advances like he did in the second half, he will expose himself to a Cincinnati attack that tore him apart on Saturday. If TFC play slowly and methodically again, it just allows the home side to stay calm and hit them on the break.

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I don’t trust the TFC to do well or Cincinnati to keep a clean sheet at all times. While I can be convinced of almost any full-time result, I can’t be convinced that either defense is playing significantly better than they did in the first meeting. Follow the trend of that bet by now cashing in five of Cincinnati’s last seven games and each of Toronto’s last eight.

To take: Same-Game Parlay – Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (-130 to FanDuel)

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