Today’s MLB Accessory Pick: A No Go For Bo Singles

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We had a busy MLB schedule today with things starting at noon and ending at 7:10 p.m. ET. With all of this action, we’ve been digging into the accessory markets and found a trio of MLB player accessories we’re willing to put our own money on.

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Sample sizes may be small at this point, but we’re happy to back an AL MVP dark horse, wipe out one of the best young shortstops in the game, and dig into some advanced plate discipline stats to find a tough game for a pitcher who was solid his first outing.

MLB props for April 13

Picks made on 04/13/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.

Today’s Best MLB Prop Bets

Mill the underside with Merril

Arizona’s Merril Kelly was sensational on his debut against the Padres. The right-hander went four scoreless innings, struck out seven and threw 51 of 75 for strikes. The strikeouts could be an outlier, though, as Kelly is a 7.7 K/9 career pitcher and now faces a non-hitting Houston team.

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The Astros have batted just 16.2% this season, which is the fourth-lowest mark in baseball. In Houston’s 2-1 win yesterday, the team was only stoked twice. If Kelly won’t go deep after needing 75 pitches to go four innings of solid ball, we don’t like his chances of recording 15 outs, which would significantly limit his chances of hitting four Ks.

The Astros don’t chase (fourth-best O swing percentage), make a ton of contacts with an 88.8 percent Z-contact percentage, and see a ton of pitches. While some might look at Kelly’s seven Ks in his first outing and think they’re getting a 3.5 strikeout total deal, the fact is, it’s a poor match for his strikeout prop.

To take: Merrill Kelly Less than 3.5 strikeouts (-104 in FanDuel)

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Bo knows the O area

Bo Bichette is one of his last 14 at bats and there’s been a lot of swing-and-misses in the shortstop’s approach lately. Of those 14 at bats over three games, Bichette has struck out seven and now faces Gerrit Cole of the Yankees who he has struggled against in the past.

Cole had a bit of a problem on his first start, but the ceremonial delay may have been a factor. A visibly frustrated Cole allowed the first four batters to base on his first start, but he settled after that.

His speed was good and he came out after 68 pitches. Over the past two seasons, Bichette is 4-for-21 against Cole with two singles and five strikeouts.

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The Yankees bullpen is also a great unit to stop the Jays’ No. 2 hitter. The New York relievers lead the league in WAR through 27 1-3 innings, have allowed just 13 hits and have a .99 ERA.

Bichette is fifth on the team with a 33.3% hard hitting percentage and has followed more than 50% of his swings on balls that are outside the club’s most important area. He also swings at 62.3% from all pitches, which is the fourth highest rating in all of baseball.

Bichette will turn things around, but with the game and a strong bullpen in New York, tonight could be a great night to bet against him. We can also be bailed out with an extra base hit by the hard-swinging shortstop.

To take: Bo Bichette Less than 0.5 single (+130 at Caesars)

Robert continues the runs

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At the start of the season, Chicago’s Luis Robert was one of the most popular dark horses for the AL MVP. After a 6-for-16 start to the season that includes a home run, four stolen bases, five runs and a hit in every game, the outfielder now sits at +1,800 to win league MVP just behind Shohei Ohtani. Mike Trout, Vladimir Guerrero and Byron Buxton.

He doesn’t have a great game tonight against Seattle’s Robbie Ray, but Robert crushed the left-handed pitcher last season and went .397/.441/.794 against left-handers. That 1.235 OPS against LHP was the second-best in baseball last season and his wOBA and wRC+ against LHP were also the second-best in baseball.

With his ability to make contact (one strikeout), get on base, slide sacks, and be followed in order by a few thumpers, Robert is the best bang for the buck to score a run. tied for the White Sox.

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Tony LaRussa knows how to fabricate runs and with former AL winner Cy Young on the hump, putting Robert in scoring position is likely a point of attention for the White Sox bench boss.

To take: Luis Robert Over 0.5 runs (+100)

Talking MLB